Keep in mind that details are changing, rumors are flying and it’s a very fluid situation. As of this morning …

Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 67 days

Countdown to South Carolina primary: 85 days

Countdown to Florida primary: 95 days

Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 99 days

Countdown to Super Tuesday: 130 days

HOUSE PASSED LEGISLATION AIMED AT EASING REGULATIONS FOR BUSINESSES – a rare point of agreement between congressional Republicans and the Obama administration. On a 405-16 vote, the House approved repealing a rule that requires governments to withhold 3 percent of their payments to contracting businesses. The provision, approved in 2005, was intended to combat tax evasion, but its implementation had been delayed twice. TURNING THE CORNER ON THE ECONOMY OR JUST MORE OF THE SAME? When it comes to the U.S. economy it’s been a rough last six months for President Obama. But yesterday’s news — GDP growth at 2.5% for the quarter –was the best economic news the White House has had in a while, signaling that
there probably won’t be a double-dip recession…ISSUE 2 IN OHIO CLOSER THAN THE POLLS SUGGEST? Per the Washington Post’s Greg Sargent, labor is trying to warn its troops that the contest over the Ohio referendum to keep or repeal its anti-collective-bargaining law is much closer than the polls are showing. “‘Those predicting a blowout for our side are basing their analysis on flawed public polling samples,’ reads the [labor] memo, which was circulated to labor and political operatives involved in the fight by Brian Rothenberg, the executive director of Progress Ohio, which is partly bankrolled by labor… ‘Modeling turnout for an off year ballot initiative is notoriously difficult,’ the memo continues. ‘This is especially true in a state like Ohio where polling on ballot initiatives has been very unreliable.”…CONGRESS: SUPER COMMITTEE DEMS MAKE THEIR FIRST OFFER Democrats on a special Congressional committee assigned to reduce the nation’s debt load on Wednesday made their first offer to Republicans based on earlier budget talks that ultimately collapsed, the New York Times says. “A majority of the 6 Democrats on the 12-member panel threw their support behind a plan that they said incorporated some ideas discussed over the summer by President Obama and Speaker John A. Boehner.” “The Democratic plan would trim much more, a total of $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion, through cuts in the growth of federal entitlement programs, including Medicare, and more than $1 trillion in new tax revenues.” The Washington Post: “Republicans quickly rejected that offer. Senior aides called the tax and stimulus provisions unacceptable. The GOP countered Wednesday with its own plan to tame the debt without raising taxes.” “Members of the so-called ‘super committee’ emerged in public today after weeks of closed-door meetings but did little to address growing doubts in the Capitol about their ability to agree on a major deficit-reduction plan,” the Boston Globe writes.

A ROUGH WEEK FOR ROMNEY AND PERRY: It was a rough week for both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, in which their chief vulnerabilities received a good bit of exposure. In Ohio, Romney tried not to take a hard position on an issue — a referendum on Ohio’s law curbing collective bargaining rights — that he had already once supported. And after a day of being criticized, Romney finally told reporters he was 110% in favor of the law. What got exposed: the suspicion that he doesn’t have a core set of beliefs and will say and do anything to win office.  Perry, meanwhile, had a double whammy this week: 1) his flirtation with birtherism and 2) his campaign’s announcement that it would limit participation at future debates. What got exposed: the fear that Perry will say and do things that are a bit too extreme for the independent voter, as well as real doubts that he has the debating skills to compete with President Obama. Of course, it’s just one week, but it was a tough one for the two men that have a shot of being their party’s presidential nominee. Both candidates have a narrative problem, and the one that makes the most progress in fixing that problem will be the nominee (First Read).

IN THE NEWS…

WHAT GADDAFI’S DEATH MEANS FOR OBAMA The death of deposed Libyan dictator  Moammar Gaddafi will be touted by Democrats as another foreign policy success story for President Obama but seems unlikely to seriously affect his political fortunes heading into a 2012 campaign still laser-focused on the struggling U.S. economy… $1 BILLION, ONE DICTATOR Originally advertised as a mission likely to last just a few weeks, the Pentagon said that from March through September it spent $1.1 billion on Operation Unified Protector over Libya. And that’s just the American military. Vice President Joe Biden said the total cost to the U.S. reached $2billion, and the cumulative tab for other NATO countries is still unknown. Still, that contrasts with more than $1 trillion spent in Iraq and Afghanistan over a decade to oust those regimes…NEW HAMPSHIRE’S PRIMARY DILEMMA Will Nevada or New Hampshire blink in their increasingly nasty dispute over the 2012 primary and caucus calendar?…SOCIAL SECURITY RECIPIENTS TO GET FIRST INCREASE IN BENEFITS SINCE 2009 Some 55 million Social Security recipients will get a 3.6 percent increase in benefits next year… RUBIO EMBELLISHMENT?  Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on Thursday dismissed as “outrageous” a Washington Post story that concluded he had embellished the saga of his family’s history, even as he failed to challenge the central finding of the report: Naturalization records appear to contradict Rubio’s many campaign-trail claims that his parents fled Cuba after Fidel Castro took power there. The records show Rubio’s parents arrived in the U.S. more than 2½ years before Castro took power. “The dates I have given regarding my family’s history have always been based on my parents’ recollections of events that occurred over 55 years ago and which were relayed to me by tem more than two decades after they happened,” Rubio said in a statement. “I was not made aware of the exact dates until very recently.”… DCCC LAPS NRCC IN FUNDRAISING. They’re out of power in the House and worried about whether President Obama’s lackluster poll ratings will drag down the ticket, but Democrats still managed to raise nearly twice as much for their House candidates last month as Republicans did. Hotline reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has managed to whittle down its 2010 debt, too. Game on? … PERRY’S EPA PLAN: BACK TO THE FUTURE. Rick Perry’s plan to dismantle the EPA and send most of its authority (and budget) back to the states would recreate the regulatory landscape of the 1950s and 1960s, before the establishment of the EPA. It would also, say experts–including William Ruckelshaus, who was EPA chief under Presidents Nixon and Reagan–create a patchwork of separate state rules that could give rise to new pollution havens, slow economic growth by creating regulatory uncertainty for industry, and ignite an explosion of interstate legal battles (National Journal).

ON THE HILL…

INSIDE THE SUPER COMMITTEE With the super committee’s Nov. 23 deadline looming, Congressional Insiders polled by National Journal expressed ambivalence both over the secrecy of the committee negotiations and the ability of Congress to prevent automatic cuts should the panel fail to produce a deficit-reduction plan. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., a member of the committee, told National Journal’s Nancy Cook that “the jury is still out” on whether compromise can be reached. To raise revenue, Van Hollen said, “one way is to begin to reduce and/or eliminate tax expenditures”; on spending cuts, he sees room for reducing agriculture subsidies and Pentagon spending, and for making entitlement programs more efficient. “The so-called Buffett Rule is an important concept that should be applied,” Van Hollen said–but “it gets complicated quickly.”… SENATE KILLS FIRST PIECE OF JOBS BILL Last night, the Senate blocked the White House-proposed bill to spend $35 billion for states and local agencies to retain teachers and first responders. The bill was President Obama’s first attempt to pass his American Jobs Act in pieces after it was blocked by a Republican filibuster last week. In a White House statement released just after the vote, Obama said. “For the second time in two weeks, every single Republican in the United States Senate has chosen to obstruct a bill that would create jobs and get our economy going again.” Whether Obama moves on to campaign for other pieces of the bill or continues to push for public workers remains to be seen…WHITE HOUSE STEPS UP ON APPROPS The White House came out strong on Thursday against a 2012 budget driven by cuts. National Journal reports that OMB director Jacob Lew sent a letter to Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, explicitly outlining plans to veto spending legislation that would fund the government below levels specified by the Budget Control act or any legislation containing what the White House deems ideological policy riders. The administration made clear that it has no patience for efforts to chip away at the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill or the administration’s health care law… MENENDEZ-ISAKSON AMENDMENT TO RAISE GSE, FHA LOAN LIMITS PASSES SENATE. The Senate voted 60 to 38 late on Thursday to pass an amendment from Sens. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., and Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., to reinstate the maximum high-cost loan limits of $729,750 on mortgages backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration. The loan limits had been temporarily raised during the height of the financial crisis from a maximum of $625,500 and expired last month. The amendment would extend the higher maximum limits through 2013. However, the measure would still have to be approved by the House, which is considered an uphill challenge.

SIMPLE SOLUTIONS AND A WILLINGNESS TO SAY “I DON”T KNOW” He opposes abortion,  including in cases of rape and incest. He thinks Iran could be deterred from aggression by deploying more warships. And he is a proponent of privatized Social Security. But just one topic — his “9-9-9” tax plan — has dominated Herman Cain’s rhetoric in this presidential race, helping to propel him to the top of Republican polls this month. Some conservatives — including the candidates own consultants — might be down on former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain’s “9-9-9” economic plan. But House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is a fan. “We need more bold ideas like this because it is specific and credible,” he told the Daily Caller…PERRY: ENERGY PLAN TO CREATE 1.2 MILLION JOBS. Texas Gov. Rick Perry will pledge today to create 1.2 million jobs and reduce dependence on foreign oil by rolling back environmental regulations and expanding oil and gas exploration. “The choice this election is between two very different visions for our country,” Perry will say, according to excerpts of his remarks provided by the campaign. “When it comes to energy, the President would kill domestic jobs through aggressive regulations while I would unleash 1.2 million American jobs through safe and aggressive energy exploration at home…THE Cook Political Report HAS MOVED HAWAII’S OPEN SENATE SEAT from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up” now that former Republican Gov. Linda Lingle is in the race. It’s an odd move, given the state’s overwhelming Democratic nature and the fact that there have been no polls since Lingle got in…OBAMA ADMINISTRATION PULLS PLUG ON MAJOR PIECE OF HEALTH-CARE OVERHAUL The Obama administration says it is unable to go forward with a major program in the president’s signature health care overhaul law — a new long-term care insurance plan. Officials said Friday the long-term care program has critical design flaws that can’t be fixed to make it financially self-sustaining…SUPER COMMITTEE INUNDATED WITH IDEAS Forgive super committee members for their radio silence today. They’re buried under reams of paper from other members and advocacy groups, all with well-worn recommendations as to how the 12 members should cut $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion from the federal budget. The super committee had asked for the suggestions by Oct. 14…MCKEON AND SMITH TO SUPER COMMITTEE: DON’T MAKE MORE DEFENSE CUTS. If there’s one thing uniting the top Republican and Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee these days, it’s their message to the super committee: Don’t even think about making more defense cuts. In separate letters on Thursday addressed to the super committee, Chairman Buck McKeon, R-Calif., and ranking member Adam Smith, D-Wash., both recommended against cutting more than the $350 billion mandated by the debt-ceiling agreement in August. If the super committee fails to reach an agreement, the Pentagon faces an additional $500 billion in across-the-board reductions…BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE BEST WAY TO DO IT. From there, McKeon and Smith appear to diverge in their public proposals for the super committee. Smith said that sparing the national defense budget while “simultaneously slashing discretionary and nondiscretionary federal spending programs would also be damaging to the country.” He urged the super committee to “include significant revenue increases among its recommendations for satisfying deficit-reduction requirements.” McKeon said he opposes revenue increases, insisting that it’s the committee’s “problem to come up with another $1.2 trillion in cuts out of entitlements” and he doesn’t need to give them any ideas…HOMELAND SECURITY COMMITTEE PASSES DHS AUTHORIZATION BILL The House Homeland Security Committee on Thursday passed H.R. 3116 with a vote of 19-13 after a two-day markup. The House panel has passed an authorization bill before; the last time was in 2007, when Democrats controlled the panel.  ButThursday’s passage is even more significant since the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee  passed its own authorization bill for the first time in late September. Senate Homeland Security communications director Leslie Phillips said: “The chances for a DHS authorization bill have moved farther along in the legislative process than they ever have before.”

CONGRESS APPROVES FREE TRADE PACTS. Months of political fighting came to an end last night when both the House and Senate passed the long-pending trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea. The deals passed with solid majorities and will next be sent to President Obama to be signed. National Journal reports: “Taken together, the three deals represent the largest free-trade agreement since Congress passed the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993.”

Forget Chris Christie‘s utter failure to convince anyone he’s not running. Don’t worry about Sarah Palin, she’s not a front-runner and never will be. Pres. Obama just made Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy the most important person in DC.

– After a 4th Circuit panel ruled 2-1 against the individual mandate in the health care bill, the DoJ’s decision to forgo a hearing before an en banc panel means SCOTUS is more likely to take up the case this term.  Several circuits are split over the decision, which made a SCOTUS case  inevitable. But DoJ’s decision moves up the timetable.

– If the Court does take up the case this term, that means a decision  will come some time in 2012. The Court traditionally reserves the  biggest decisions for the final day, June 25. Increasing the likelihood  that a health care ruling comes down that day means increasing the chances that the WH’12 race relitigates a fight Dems have already lost at the ballot box.

– Dems in DC are scratching their heads today, but there may be a  silver lining: Here’s a perfect opportunity to contrast Obama’s plan with the Ryan budget — a fight Dems think they win. And in the event Obama loses, a Dem DoJ defending the law in 2012 is better for the bill than a GOP DoJ declining to defend it in 2013.

After all, it’s the admin’s signature achievement. Let’s be honest,  health care is going to be a central focus of next year anyway.

(Excerpt from the National Jounal)

Well, Congress appears to have avoided a shutdown — again. But it wasn’t easy, even though it should have been since the subject was the usually non-partisan issue of disaster relief. According to the Washington Post:  “After days of brinkmanship reminiscent of the budget battles that have  consumed Washington this year, key senators clinched a compromise that  would provide less money for disaster  relief than Democrats sought but would also strip away spending cuts  that Republicans demanded. The pact, which the Senate approved 79 to 12  and the House is expected to ratify next week, is expected to keep  federal agencies open until Nov. 18.”

Presidential Politics

Countdown to Election Day 2011: 46 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 136 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up, and it’s likely that the contest takes place earlier.

At Last Night’s Republican Debate Perry struggles again: If Rick Perry’s goal last night was to erase doubts about his past debate performances, he didn’t succeed. Once again, Perry started out strong, discussing his economic record in Texas and deflecting Mitt Romney’s attacks on Social Security. But then everything went downhill for him: Perry stumbled when talking about Pakistan (saying that better relations with India is the way to keep Pakistani nukes out of the hands of terrorists; huh?) and he badly mangled his flip-flopper charge on Romney (it was a rehearsed line, right?). The good news for Perry, is that primary debate winners usually don’t end up winning the nomination. The bad news, however, is that his past three debates haven’t given establishment Republicans (especially key donors) the confidence that he’s their guy…Desperately seeking someone else? Meanwhile, for the next week or two, watch out for more establishment conservatives calling for new candidates. There’s Wall Street Journal editorial page editor Paul Gigot’s efforts to recruit Chris Christie into the race. Gigot is about as close to being a potential pied piper for what’s left of the GOP donor establishment community as there is right now… Another solid performance from Romney: If Perry once again struggled, then Romney once again turned in a solid performance. He was confident, funny, and sharp. Breaking down the rest: As for the other participants, Michele Bachmann was virtually absent, which won’t turn around the building narrative that the race is passing her by. Rick Santorum gave a very strong performance, perhaps his best of the cycle and he’s turning into one of Mitt Romney’s most important allies in debates. Jon Huntsman was better than at last week’s debate. Ron Paul was Ron Paul, Newt was Newt, and Herman Cain was Herman Cain. And Gary Johnson, in his first debate since May, did little to prove that he’s a serious contender for the nomination.

ON THE HILL SENATE DEFEATS CR…Early Friday afternoon, the Senate defeated, 59 to 36, a spending bill to fund the government through Nov. 18. With both chambers scheduled to begin a week-long recess later Friday, the next step on the funding resolution remains unclear. The Federal Emergency Management Agency could run out of funding as early as Monday, and the resolution currently keeping the federal government open is set to expire on Sept. 30. The House had passed the bill, 219 to 203, in the early hours on Friday morning after an earlier failure...A TAXING SUPER COMMITTEE HEARING.  “As countless scolds around Washington urge them to come together and ‘go big,’ the super-committee members seemed unable to achieve consensus on even the finer points of tax policy as the group turned to that issue at a long hearing onThursday.” Though the focus of the hearing was taxes on businesses, the group seemed to focus on a wide range of tax issues: tax expenditures, deductions, marginal rates, and corporate competitiveness, with each member holding his or her own definition of “fairness.” …ANTI-EPA TRAIN LEAVING THE STATION. The House is expected to pass the TRAIN Act — the first in this fall’s march of bills aimed at blocking and gutting the EPA’s regulatory authority -– today. None of the bills will pass the Senate, but that’s not really the point, which is to keep the antiregulatory flames fanned high going into 2012. The rhetoric shows no sign of slowing down, as last night’s floor debate boiled down to, in the words of House Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman, “job-killing regulations versus child-killing pollution.” But parts of these bills could still live on: Republicans will try to see what pieces of them they can attach to a year-end must-pass spending bill that are meaningful enough to please industry but mild enough to slip past Senate Democrats and a White House veto threat … NO CHILD LEFT IN GRIDLOCK. The White House will unveil a plan today that allows states to opt out of certain No Child Left Behind regulations. The current law requires schools to hold every demographic (based on race, gender, and special needs) to an achievement level equal for their grade or face punishment ranging up to a shutdown. Both parties have introduced legislation in Congress to change the strict provisions, but partisan differences have landed all efforts in gridlock. Education Secretary Arne Duncan told reporters two weeks ago, “I felt compelled to do this,” citing congressional failures as the reason for the White House’s involvement. But strings will come attached to the waivers.

In The News

Abbas Says Palestinians Will Demand Full U.N. Membership at Security Council The Palestinian president announced Friday that he will seek statehood through the Security Council at the United Nations next week, a move strongly opposed by Israel and the United States and likely to provoke a major conflict over how to resolve one of the most intractable issues in the Middle East. The announcement by the president, Mahmoud Abbas, in a speech delivered at his headquarters in Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, was the first time he has so explicitly and publicly endorsed such a strategy, which Palestinian officials have been moving toward for months as their frustration over stalled peace talks with Israel has intensified. American and Israeli diplomats had struggled to dissuade Mr. Abbas and his aides from such a step…Carville’s Advice to President Obama –he needs to fire a lot of people. That’s the conclusion of longtime Democratic strategist and TV pundit James Carville, who unloaded on Obama Thursday for failing to change his White House team despite months of lagging poll numbers and stagnant economic indicators. “For God’s sake,” Carville wrote on CNN’s web sit , “why are we still looking at the same political and economic advisers that got us into this mess? It’s not working.”

PERRY’S IMMIGRATION GAMBLE In this week’s GOP presidential debate, Rick Perry got booed for defending a Texas law that provides in-state college tuition for young people brought into his state illegally as children by their parents. Perry’s refusal to toe the conservative line on immigration issues might cost him votes in GOP primaries, but it could be a big help in November — especially in a year when Hispanics seem to be cooling to President Obama…UPDATE ON SUPER COMMITTEE Super committee members find themselves surrounded by colleagues who are piling on pressure for them to go beyond their already-tough job of recommending more than $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts over a decade—a reminder that, with just over two months to go before its recommendations are due, the 12-member panel is still grappling with first principles.…Following a closed-door breakfast on Thursday that served as their first private meeting, super committee members offered a series of ‘no comments’ and generalities. But they will be hard-pressed just to find $1.2 trillion in recommended savings that must clear both chambers to avert automatic sequestration of a like amount in 2013.” Late Thursday, panel Co-Chairs Rep. Jeb Hensarling and Sen. Patty Murray announced that the next hearing, a discussion of tax reform, will take place next Thursday, with Tom
Barthold of the Joint Committee on Taxation slated to testify…FAA DEAL FLIES Senate Environment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., cut a deal on Thursday with Sen. Tom Coburn, R.-Okla., that averted, a day after it emerged, a threat of a second Federal Aviation Administration shutdown in as many months. Coburn wanted language added to a combined short-term FAA and surface transportation reauthorization bill that will free states from a requirement to set aside highway funds for “enhancements,” including bike paths. Coburn had blocked a unanimous-consent deal to pass the measure this week. Without action, a partial FAA shutdown would have begun Saturday. To seal the deal, Democrats agreed to include an opt-out for states when Congress considers the next surface transportation bill in six months…SENATE APPROPRIATORS OK $26B DEFENSE CUT Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee unanimously approved a $630.6 billion defense spending bill for fiscal 2012 that trims $26 billion from the Pentagon’s request by cutting or eliminating funding for 580 programs in the budget proposal. Congress manndated the sizable cut to the Pentagon’s top line in the Budget Control Act approved last month, giving the Senate panel just weeks to find the necessary savings. In the end, Senate Appropriations Chairman Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, opted to spread the pain of the cuts across the Defense Department’s sprawling budget rather than make targeted reductions in the size or capability of the force… SAVING SOCIAL SECURITY, JUST NOT NOW  The White House made it official on Thursday: President Obama doesn’t want the congressional super committee to put Social Security on its agenda, even though House Speaker John Boehner thinks it should be. Press secretary Jay Carney said that Social Security can wait, noting that the president believes “it is not a driver of our near-term deficit problems and it can be pursued on a parallel track. NEW TACK FOR HEALTH CARE REPEAL Republicans debuted a new strategy for undermining the Obama administration’s health care reform law on Thursday. Their proposal, discussed in a House subcommittee hearing, would preserve the status quo for many insurance plans by making them immune to regulations under the law. Republicans described it as a way of ensuring that, as Obama promised, consumers would be able to keep the insurance they have. Democrats attacked the measure for undermining popular consumer protections… RACE TO CLOSE RENEWABLE-ENERGY LOAN  GUARANTEES The Obama administration is in a race against the clock to close by month’s end more than a dozen renewable-energy loan guarantees totaling $9 billion. Of that, just over $3 billion would come from the federal government’s coffers and most would go to solar companies. The administration now has to do this amid an escalating political battle over the federally backed Solyndra that’s spiraling into bankruptcy and facing an FBI probe.

Politico is reporting that House Republicans are actively considering  plans to bundle the 12 annual appropriations bills into a single omnibus package  that meets spending targets set in the August budget accord and can be enacted  before the December showdown over further deficit reduction.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) was described as still nervous about the  strategy, given the resistance he risks from conservatives and his own past  criticism of such big budget packages. But House Appropriations Committee  Chairman Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) told POLITICO, “I don’t think we have any choice,” and expects to meet with his Senate counterparts next week to explore this  approach.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63653.html#ixzz1Y9WPayvq